Copper prices fluctuate at high levels, and the long-short game intensifies

1) Macroeconomics: Expectations of slowing growth rise. U.S. retail sales in February increased by only 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.6%, and the January data was significantly revised down to -1.2%. Although the year-on-year growth rate remained at 3.1%, there were obvious signs of slowing consumption momentum. The Trump administration reiterated its plan to increase tariffs in April, and although it hinted that bilateral negotiations may be launched later, the shadow of tariffs continues to hang over the market. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision in the early hours of tomorrow, and the market will focus on its assessment of the economic outlook and inflation stickiness.

2 Supply and demand game: support and constraints coexist On the supply side, copper concentrate TC (rough treatment charge) is still falling. The suspension of Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the tension in copper concentrate have exacerbated expectations of raw material shortages and boosted bullish bets on industrial instability. Recently, the market has heard that smelters have unplanned production cuts, and the peak maintenance period in March and April is approaching, which may affect the output of refined copper. In addition, there are disturbances in overseas mining news. It is reported that the attack on the Los Chancas copper mine project in Peru has limited impact on global copper supply in the short term, but it highlights the geopolitical risk premium on the resource side.

3) Operation strategy: Be cautious and bullish, and focus on key points. The current copper price is in the long-short game stage between policy premium and weak consumption. Technically, the main contract of Shanghai Copper has received strong support at the 81,000 integer mark, but the pressure level above 81,000 is also significant. Strategic suggestions: short-term: rely on the 5-day moving average (MA5) or the 20-day moving average (MA20) as a defensive position, absorb dips and avoid chasing highs; mid-term: be wary of the dual suppression of the implementation of tariff policies and expectations of a global economic slowdown, and maintain flexible positions;